Weeks When Everything Happens
We took about six weeks off from the podcast over the holidays. The idea was: maybe things go quiet for a minute.
Yeah… no.
We came back to silver ripping, headlines out of Venezuela, a brewing showdown vibe around Iran, and a very American kind of flashpoint forming in Minnesota. That was the opening frame of our latest conversation.
Doug’s quick summary (and it’s hard to argue with the direction of travel) was basically: we’re entering the “speed-up” phase. Not “cyclical volatility,” but structural instability—more weird surprises, more often.
The “Trump doesn’t finish the term” prediction
Doug led with a blunt one: he’s willing to bet Trump doesn’t complete his term, with a range of possible mechanisms—from the 25th Amendment to something darker.
My reaction was the obvious follow-up: okay—if that happened, what then? Does the agenda stall… or does it harden? I floated the idea that you’d see a continuity handoff (Vance) plus a surge of anger/energy among Trump’s base.
Doug’s counterpoint was colder: the machinery is the machinery. Most of the apparatus still clocks in, collects checks, and keeps moving. The shock would matter—maybe more than the policy shift.
Iran: “80%” odds of U.S. airstrikes
Then we got into Iran—and here Doug put a number on it.
I asked him straight: What are the odds the U.S. launches airstrikes in the next ~60 days? His answer: “80%.”
His logic was basically: pressure, momentum, and the “walk the walk after you’ve talked the talk” problem. He also made the point that chaos is unpredictable by definition—and once you start rolling that boulder downhill, you don’t get to control where it stops.
I added my own read: if the U.S. can’t (or won’t) do anything meaningful, then public promises of “help is on the way” just degrade credibility. It’s political theater with real consequences.
Venezuela: “buy when there’s blood in the streets”… until you try to do it
We also used Venezuela as a reality-check example for the old contrarian rule: buy when there’s blood in the streets.
In theory, sure. In practice, it’s brutal. You run into basic problems that don’t show up in a price chart: title risk, enforcement risk, capital controls, and the fact that you might not be able to safely use what you “own.” Doug’s point was that the slogan is easy; execution is where it breaks.
Minnesota: the domestic collision course
The most “U.S. 2026” section of the conversation was Minnesota.
We talked about an alleged long-running fraud ecosystem and how these scandals don’t just stay “financial”—they become political accelerants.
Then you add fuel: a major surge of federal presence (I mentioned hearing ~2,600 agents in Minneapolis), local leaders pushing back, lawsuits flying, and a killing that becomes a cause célèbre. At that point, you’re not in “news cycle” territory—you’re in “flashpoint” territory.
The Insurrection Act question (and why the optics matter)
I brought up something that’s been bouncing around my head: if this escalates into sustained street conflict, does Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
Doug’s answer: odds are high—and he made a point that stuck with me. When enforcement units start looking and behaving like soldiers, you get a dangerous blur. It changes how the public perceives “law enforcement,” and it changes how quickly things can spiral.
And yes—the masks. We talked about how disturbing it is when armed state agents are routinely masked. Whatever your politics are, that’s a bad visual in a republic.
The money problem underneath everything
Then we hit the layer that always matters more than the headlines: the fiscal/monetary base layer.
Doug argued that if you’re running enormous deficits while expanding the war/defense footprint, you’re effectively forcing monetization dynamics—because the bond market can’t painlessly absorb it forever.
That’s the part I’m watching hardest: not “will there be a crisis,” but where it shows up first—funding markets, credit spreads, liquidity, banks, confidence. It’s the kind of thing that can go from “fine” to “not fine” fast.
How we’re thinking about it (without living in panic)
We closed on something I actually agree with more as I get older: you can’t live in a permanent cortisol bath.
Doug’s posture was basically stoic/Daoist: don’t waste your life worrying about what you can’t control.
My version is more practical: own more physical gold and keep the good times rolling as long as they’ll roll—without assuming they’re permanent.
Doug also reiterated something I think a lot of readers here feel in their bones: Uruguay/Argentina still looks peaceful and livable compared to where the U.S. mood is drifting.
If you’re a paid subscriber and want a question asked on the next episode, drop it in the group chat or in the Substack comments—I’ll pull the best ones and put them to Doug.
00:00 Introduction and Current Events Overview
01:00 Political Predictions and Trump's Future
04:20 Iran and Military Strategies
09:43 Venezuela and Speculative Investments
14:09 Minneapolis and Somali Immigration Issues
22:33 ICE and Police Brutality
24:47 Political Figures and Their Controversies
26:20 Government Corruption and Financial Mismanagement
28:29 Minnesota's ICE Surge and Public Reaction
29:40 The Role of Femininity in Society
31:35 Potential Civil Unrest and Global Conflicts
40:35 Concerns About the Future
