In the latest episode of Doug Casey’s Take, we take questions from subscribers after discussing Iran and the crash in metals. If you’re a subscriber and would like to ask Doug a question, post them here
1) Iran: if this kicks off, it won’t be “contained”
We started with the obvious question: does the U.S. hit Iran — and what happens next? Doug’s point was basically: predicting Trump is pure guesswork, but there are incentives to not back down (optics, “chickens out,” etc.). Then the real issue: Iran isn’t helpless. Missiles, bases, ships, the Strait of Hormuz — you’re instantly in regional chaos that spills into global economic chaos. And that’s before you factor in China and Russia, with China’s dependence on Iranian oil.
Also: we talked about the “weekend” pattern — big moves conveniently landing after markets close, when the news cycle is softer.
2) Metals: silver went manic, then got whacked — and that tells you something
We recorded this on a Friday with precious metals getting hammered: silver down ~13.5% and gold down $318 (gold around $5,059 spot in the moment).
And the fact that subscriber questions were basically “how do I get in / how do I cash out?” is itself a sign the near-term move got overheated.
On the Shanghai/Mumbai premium and the “Comex vs East” gap: Doug’s view was that when you’ve got a $15-ish premium in China and policy distortions like export restrictions, the whole thing turns into a messy, shifting price-discovery problem.
Add in the real-world plumbing: refining bottlenecks, delays, and dealers/wholesalers getting flooded with sellers — in fact we mentioned wholesalers offering ~15% below spot to buy back because of the glut.
Doug’s bottom line for right now: do nothing. Don’t step into the “chaotic dog fight.” Let it normalize.
3) “Be right and sit tight” (and where the stress fractures are showing)
The phrase of the episode was Doug’s: “be right and sit tight.” If you’ve been positioned the way we’ve been positioned, you’re on the right side of the trend — so don’t get shaken out by chaos.
We also hit the macro “tells,” like Japan: rates that were basically nothing for decades now meaningfully higher, bondholders taking hits, and the knock-on effects of carry trades unwinding.
And we touched oil/nat gas as increasingly interesting (especially if the Iran situation escalates), plus a quick nod that Petrobras has been ripping and pays a real dividend.
4) The silver-to-gold swap fantasy: don’t worship a “magic ratio”
We addressed the popular strategy: stack silver, wait for the gold/silver ratio, swap into gold. The practical problem is obvious: when everyone tries to do it at once, spreads blow out — and you get clipped on the way out and clipped again on the way in.
Doug’s view: there’s no magic ratio here (unlike some commodity relationships that have tighter physical/energy anchors).
5) Miners, juniors, and “Casey Free Ride”
We covered portfolio strategy: there’s no single “sell at 5x / 10x” rule. It depends on the company. Some juniors are basically burning matches, not heirlooms — but in a bull market you can let a lot run.
We also explained why miners can still look undervalued: companies and analysts use conservative metal-price assumptions (like the $26 silver example), partly because the corporate game is “don’t disappoint the Street.”
6) A few practical hits: brokers, storage, and what we read
Brokers: Interactive Brokers for broad access; Canadian brokers for Canadian stocks, but watch commissions and counterparty risk.
Storage: safe deposit boxes aren’t what they used to be; “banks as arms of the state” and all that.
Research: we mentioned a few newsletters and also how we’re using AI to sift the mountain of juniors (starting with daily drill-result triage).
Quick closer
We ended with a dark-humor nod to perestroika/glasnost and the idea that the U.S. may be heading toward its own “restructuring” period — which is exactly why having options outside the U.S. matters.
00:00 Introduction and Subscriber Questions
00:14 Potential Conflict with Iran
06:16 Market Reactions and Precious Metals
07:17 Silver Market Dynamics
10:53 Investment Strategies and Market Chaos
20:49 Portfolio Management and Broker Recommendations
25:18 Big Producer and Royalty Names
28:08 Physical Precious Metal Storage
31:24 Financial Newsletters for Investments
35:49 Gold and Silver Market Trends
38:52 Antiquated Metals Pricing in Mining Reports
42:30 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook
