Today’s conversation got dark fast - and stayed there.
Doug had just finished watching an interview with MIT professor Ted Postel on Coffee and a Mike, and came away more convinced than ever that the Iran situation is an unmitigated catastrophe headed for a very bad ending. “Americans have gotten into the habit of thinking that wars are like Grenada — we were there for like four days,” Doug says. “This is hunting big game.”
The economic consequences are what really have Doug and Matt worried. With petroleum embedded in roughly 45,000 products and the average American reportedly living paycheck to paycheck, even a moderate disruption sends shockwaves everywhere. Doug doesn’t mince words: “Do we have enough bridges to accommodate all these people to sleep under when they lose their houses?”
From there, the conversation covers a lot of ground:
Energy prices and mining. A subscriber asked how rising energy costs affect mining profitability. Diesel is the single biggest ongoing hard cost for mining operations, and with prices doubling, Matt’s research shows all-in sustaining costs could jump 10–25% depending on the mine. Doug’s verdict? With gold where it is, the margins are high enough that it’s not a dealbreaker.
Private placements — the real risks. Doug lays out the tradeoff plainly: you get discounted shares and warrants that can double your upside, but your money is locked up for four months and you’re handing cash to a company that needs it — which is inherently dangerous.
The reserve currency unraveling. The petrodollar system is clogging up. Major oil-producing nations can’t sell at the same levels, which means fewer dollars recycling into Treasuries. On top of that, Doug points out, foreign holders actively want to dump their Treasury holdings. “The world is gonna go back to gold because none of these governments can or should trust each other’s fiat paper currencies.”
Corn: a “fake industry.” A Midwest farmer subscriber delivered a blistering breakdown of the corn market — virtually 100% subsidized, with 40% going to ethanol and the rest to industrial uses. Doug’s response? “Total agreement.” But he’s still buying corn, along with rice, soybeans, and wheat, because he sees all of them going significantly higher.
The numismatics warning. Doug’s advice to collectors holding rare coins? Hit the bid. Kids don’t collect coins anymore, stamps are dead, and as boomers age out, those collections are headed to a market with no buyers. “And if you have a Beanie Baby collection, I’d hit the bid on that too.”
Plus: Why Doug thinks travel is only getting harder from here, his two genuinely dangerous moments abroad (Haiti and the Congo), how to think about starting a business in this environment, and a candid update on Hydrograph — which Doug calls a lottery ticket that could be a hundred-to-one shot or go to zero.
00:00 Subscriber Q&A Kickoff
00:37 Podcast Takeaways on War
02:20 Economic Shock and Energy Reality
05:11 Mining Costs vs Diesel Spike
06:23 Finding a Business Pain Point
07:42 Starting Investing Today
09:18 Dangerous Travel Stories
13:42 Private Placements Risks
15:23 Asymmetric Bets in Iran War
18:08 Professor Jean on Long War
21:11 Music Royalties and Dire Straits
22:17 Brazil Outlook and Regions
23:10 Brazil Travel Reality
24:23 Visas And Travel Tightening
25:16 Covid Vaccine Skepticism
27:29 Corn Subsidy Machine
30:08 Corn As Investment
32:05 Draft Avoidance Talk
33:45 Protecting 401k Savings
35:39 Dollar Devaluation And Gold
39:10 Numismatics Exit Strategy
40:40 Women And Preparedness
41:39 Buying Hydrograph Shares
42:52 Hydrograph Buy More Guidance
44:24 Free Ride Speculation Lesson
45:30 Wrap Up And Next Week
