The Trump Honeymoon Is Over

Trump, DOGE, and the Unkillable Beast of Washington (and Why You Still Need a Backup Plan)

When Trump pulled off another comeback in 2024, a lot of people breathed a long sigh of relief.

Finally—someone who understood that America couldn't keep borrowing its way to prosperity. Someone who'd proven he could deliver economic growth. Someone who promised to take a sledgehammer to the regulatory machine choking American businesses.

After four years of watching Joe Biden bumble through teleprompters, shake hands with ghosts, and abandon billions in military equipment to the Taliban, Trump—fresh off an assassination attempt—felt like a major upgrade. For the first time in a long time, it felt like things might finally turn.

And then came the appointments that made it all feel real.

Looking back, for instance, Elon Musk stepping in to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was, frankly, kind of revolutionary. This was the guy who—love or hate electric cars—took them mainstream, and built rockets that don’t just launch, but come back in one piece. Musk transformed entire industries by cutting waste and maximizing efficiency. If anyone could cut through the bloat in Washington, surely it was him.

The early days delivered on that promise (one Trump had campaigned on not just in 2024, but all the way back in 2016). Executive orders flew fast and decisive. The border chaos that defined the Biden years ground to a halt overnight. The DEI bureaucracy found itself suddenly defunded. DOGE started exposing the mess—duplicate departments, overlapping mandates, and legacy monsters like USAID that had long outlived their usefulness.

For a brief moment, it looked like the U.S. government might actually course-correct before hitting the fiscal iceberg.

When the System Pushes Back

But today, that optimism feels increasingly naive.

There are too many reasons to unpack all at once—so let’s just stick with one I’ve already touched on: DOGE.

Elon's team had identified hundreds of billions in wasteful spending—entire departments that existed solely to justify their own existence, programs that hadn't been audited in decades, contractors billing taxpayers for work that was never completed.

The response from Congress earlier this month? They cut a “whopping” $9 billion.

Not $9 billion from each major department. Not $9 billion per quarter. Nine billion total—a rounding error on a federal budget that burns through more than that every few days.

And this came after the massive omnibus spending bill that added trillions more to the deficit, essentially nullifying every cost-cutting measure DOGE had proposed. It was Washington's way of saying: "Thanks for the recommendations, but we'll keep doing things our way."

I still—somewhat painfully—remember writing this last December, wishing I’d be proven wrong.

The reality is that Washington is engineered to resist efficiency initiatives like DOGE. History has shown us that. The Grace Commission under the Reagan administration, a similar effort in the 1980s to identify government waste, produced a 47-volume report with 2,478 recommendations. In the end, only a handful were implemented, and the savings were a fraction of what was promised.

Remember, the Reagan Revolution was all about making the government smaller. You can read about how this admirable effort was derailed by the Washington political process in less than half a year in a book called The Triumph of Politics by David Stockman, who was the director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan administration. I strongly recommend it.

And here we are.

The national debt has surged past $37 trillion—and it’s still climbing at a pace no economy can sustain. Interest payments alone now cost over $1 trillion a year. That number could easily triple within a decade.

Social Security is still on track to run out of money by 2033—just eight years away. And yet, real reform isn’t even being discussed.

The regulatory state Trump promised to tear down? It’s still standing, buried under decades of red tape that continues to choke innovation and entrepreneurship.

And to top it all off, the Federal Reserve is being prepped for another epic round of money-printing—one that could make the pandemic-era stimulus look tame by comparison. Because when debt service becomes unmanageable, there’s really only one move left: print more money.

Back to (Plan B) Reality

That’s why we never stopped talking about Plan B—not even after Trump won.

I recall Matt saying something on one of our Phyle calls last December, not long after Trump’s win—I’m paraphrasing: “I know, it’s great having your guy win—but don’t mistake that for a solution. Don’t go thinking the problems are solved and you can just sit back and relax.”

Now, more than six months later, he’s been proven right—maybe even more than he expected.

Sure, we hoped for better. But hope won’t protect your savings from a government desperate to stay afloat—or your family if things really go sideways.

That’s where preparation comes in. Because when uncertainty is the default setting, the rational move is to build options into your life.

Throughout history, prudent people have done just that.

You keep emergency savings. You buy insurance. You diversify your investments.

A Plan B follows the same logic: don’t bet everything on one system—especially when that system is cracking at the seams.

For Americans today, that means:

• Financial diversification: Don't keep all assets subject to potential capital controls or wealth taxes.

• Real assets: Own tangible things that hold value during monetary crises.

• Building a backup plan abroad: Secure legal residency somewhere stable as a backup if things deteriorate (while building connections and capabilities that don’t depend on the U.S. system).

We talk about all three in our essays, podcasts and publications. But when it comes to building a backup plan abroad, no amount of reading can replace actual boots-on-the-ground experience.

That's why last March we organized our first Plan B: Uruguay event. Attendees came to explore what Uruguay offers—legal residency, foreign bank accounts, property investment.

It was a huge success. And since many couldn’t attend last time due to limited spots, we’re bringing it back this year.

Matt Smith and Doug Casey—who chose to settle in Uruguay after exploring over 130 countries—will share why they made it their Plan B destination.

If you’ve been thinking about a backup plan abroad, this is well worth your attention (more info at the link below).

As I’ve said before, this isn’t about giving up on America or rooting for its collapse. It’s simply about taking smart precautions—while you still can.

Because here’s the thing: many people don’t realize you need to set up your Plan B before things go south—while the system still works and your options are still on the table. Once a country tips into a full-blown financial crisis—or social and political upheaval—it’ll probably be too late.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Lau Vegys

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