20 Comments
User's avatar
Dan Kurz's avatar

Matt, I’m not arguing with ghosts, just with facts. You or your colleague state that the dollar is collapsing, as you predicted, and that by extension, America’s trade deficits were somehow magically going to shrink. Look at history, guys, and you’ll notice that in general, and over decades, the dollar’s value has declined sharply against other fiat currencies while the trade deficit with the ROW mushroomed. Those may be inconvenient facts for you, but facts that are. Come on, Matt, you can do better than that, or at least I thought.

Expand full comment
User was indefinitely suspended for this comment. Show
Expand full comment
Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing's avatar

I didn't connect the two. The "by extension" part is all you.

Expand full comment
Dan Kurz's avatar

Your statement that a lower dollar isn’t equated, by you as well, with lower deficits is utterly disingenuous.

Expand full comment
Dan Kurz's avatar

Reshoring when maniacal, king Trump casts aside the rule of law and does 180s as often as daily or weekly isn’t going to engender investment or a reduction in America’s huge trade deficit. It will, however, make all his crony friends that can benefit from an on/off tariff scheme that are able to price gouge richer; it will allow them to earn outsized profits as customers end up paying the tariffs and face emptier Walmart shelves. Meanwhile, while his cronies or their downstream pals, after securing massive, before the fact/mispriced stock options, will again repurchase shares and raise debt over investing in P& L. In the interim, Trump’s tariff insanity will raise (sales) taxes and increase government’s fascist footprint in the economy, and it will crush American manufacturers that purchase many components from overseas. We’ve all seen this movie before boys and girls, as in Trumpster’s first term, when the trade deficits got bigger and his cronies fatter.

(Moreover, if tariffs were the answer, why is Trump carving out so many exceptions for this or that favored industry, ie, until the fascist, Zionist buffoon king does another unconstitutional tariff rewrite! This isn’t economic policy, it is foaming at the mouth madness turned into policy to the detriment of an erstwhile federalist, representative, inalienable rights protecting, separation of power, extremely limited federal government powers, the people are the sovereigns republic.

Luckily much more seasoned, wise Doug wasn’t fooled long by Trump. He arguably held his nose and decided that Trump was less bad than Kamala. But he recently said something to the effect of “had I known what an unmitigated disaster Trump would be,” he wouldn’t have favored or voted for either. I only went to the polls to vote for Bonita Springs mayor :-)

Expand full comment
Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing's avatar

Dan,

You're now arguing with ghosts. I was always very clear about this one. Tariffs are a cudgel to convince other countries to cooperate in the devaluation of the currency. Or, at least, that's how they've been used in the past so that's what I expected this time around. If you listened to anything I said, you must have heard that. No?

Doug, until recently, was much more positive on Trump than I was. I was never able to look beyond operation warp speed. Neither of us voted at all.

Expand full comment
Dan Kurz's avatar

Matt was touting Trump the great and how his controlled demolition of the dollar would allow the US a phoenix-like rise from the ashes, so come on, stop the BS and go for transparency and honesty instead!

Expand full comment
Lau Vegys's avatar

》》Matt was touting Trump the great and how his controlled demolition of the dollar...

That 'touting' is, of course, nonsense. But the demolition part? Isn’t that exactly what’s been happening? The dollar’s down more than 10% year to date—the biggest drop since 1973. And they’re clearly working on reshoring and the rest of the stuff we wrote about.

Will it work? We don’t know. We've said it all along. But it’s clearly happening.

Can that—and Trump failing to deliver on his promises to rein in government bloat and deficits—both be true? Of course it can.

Expand full comment
Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing's avatar

That’s nonsense. I explained his plan. I didn’t endorse it. When @Coffee and a Mike said to me, “this all sounds really good.” I replied with something like… “well, if it works, will America be in a better position by the time my kids are my age (30 years), yes, that’s possible. But, there’s a lot of pain between here and there.” Does that sound like touting Trump?

Expand full comment
Josh's avatar

I don’t recall that instance. I know he also seemed to be optimistic on Donald but I haven’t heard any optimism from him since doge failed

Expand full comment
Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing's avatar

My optimism came from the stated plans to confront the real challenges America faced. Unfortunately, once he got a good look he rolled on his back like a whipped dog and pissed all over everything.

Expand full comment
Josh's avatar

Yeah that’s been my take on your view. Love your stuff Matt. This crisis investing team is top notch.

Expand full comment
Dan Kurz's avatar

I do. Well. He “trumped” it multiple times. He even wrote about it, at least once. Her gave it some ridiculous name. Call it the innocence of relative youth married to a conviction that he has figured out Trump‘s “3D” chess (or is it 4D or 5D or some such unadulterated claptrap) and how it will suspend gravity or Econ 101. The gullibility was married to a desire to become well known for deciphering that great things were in store for us thanks to a megalomaniac buffoon issuing one insane, rule of law eviscerating, planning and investing curdling Diktat after the other. Beam me up, Scotty!

Expand full comment
Matt Smith @ Crisis Investing's avatar

I said they had a plan to remake the global trading system and roll out a new currency system. Look around you. Can't you see it happening? I was never one of those who bought into Trump ushing in a golden age. I think Americans will be crushed by this if they don't prepare themselves for it and that's what I said.

Expand full comment
Patrick's avatar

Matt/Doug

I want so much to go on this Plan B trip to Uruguay but I have a wedding that week in my immediate family. I hope you schedule another one in the 1st Q 2026!!!

Expand full comment
Corkey's avatar

I think a virtual conference would be in order for those who cannot attend.

Expand full comment
Joe Van Steenbergen's avatar

Doesn't this prove that the government we thought we knew is not the government we have, and that no one, ever, can reign in the corruption and malfeasance? What more do we need to prove this reality?

Expand full comment
DefCon-Dan's avatar

Regarding the Obama treason, here it was in 2010, but it was mostly ignored then.

Hopefully, it will not be ignored any more.

https://www.amazon.com/Manchurian-President-Communists-Socialists-Anti-American/dp/1935071874

Regarding the government we have now, it is nothing more than an organized crime criminocracy masquerading as a government. Nothing more than that.

Expand full comment
Joe Van Steenbergen's avatar

Obama was a disaster in many ways, but we must remember he was the ultimate puppet and made no crucial decisions on his own. He was not, as he often told us, the "smartest guy in the room." Truth told, he was the village idiot in an empty suit.

Expand full comment
andy's avatar

High-fructose corn syrup moon ...

Expand full comment