Two numbers stuck with me from this conversation with Doug. SpaceX went public and minted the world’s first trillionaire. And the gold miners’ sentiment index hit zero — literally zero, a number Doug says he’s never seen. Euphoria on one side of the market, total despair on the other.
On SpaceX: the stock opened at $135 and ran past $171, up about 30% on the day. Elon’s stake alone was worth roughly $867 billion at the IPO price — add Tesla and he’s well past a trillion. Doug’s glad it held, and so am I, because a SpaceX flop would’ve taken the rest of the market down with it. But neither of us is mistaking the party for health. When IPOs spike like it’s 1999, somebody’s ringing a bell at the top. We’ll see if anyone’s listening.
(We also spent a minute on how absurd a trillion is. A billion pennies stacked would reach from New York to Palm Beach. A trillion gets you to the moon and back — twice.)
Then the part of the market we actually care about. On January 29 the gold miners’ bullish index hit 100. On June 10 it hit zero. Doug’s response is the only sane one I can come up with: it can’t go lower, so he’s buying, not selling. Oil’s down there with it — West Texas around $80, Brent around $84 — even with Hormuz shut for more than 100 days. What’s holding it down is China, which has quietly pulled close to 5 million barrels a day out of its imports. I asked Doug how that’s even possible. Neither of us has heard a good answer.
On inflation: official CPI ticked up to 4.2%, producer prices hotter still, and Doug’s “personal CPI” is worse — $140 for a simple dinner for three. Kevin Warsh runs his first meeting as Fed chair next week. The question I keep circling back to: who lends the government money for 10 or 30 years at 4–6% when the only exit from the debt is the printing press?
The listener questions ranged wide:
Costa Rica — Doug lived there for months and has cooled on it. The place that pioneered the gringo-friendly tropics has gotten expensive and touristy. His pick in Central America today, if forced: maybe Panama.
Tokenized gold — Kinesis, Tether Gold, and others let you spend gold off a debit card backed by audited vault metal. Doug likes the concept — it makes gold money again — with one question I share: is it really yours, and can you actually redeem it?
Ivanhoe Mines and Ebola — A deadlier new Ebola strain is in the Congo. Doug’s not worried about Ivanhoe; Katanga is effectively cut off from the outbreak zone.
Lutnick, stablecoins, and Epstein — Doug doesn’t trust anyone orbiting Trump, and he doesn’t think the worst of the files ever sees daylight.
Humanoid robots — Some 200 robot companies in China are racing on cheap EV battery tech. Doug’s bet: five years from now we each have one standing behind us, doing what it’s told.
Doug closed on the line he keeps coming back to: the trend of the market is still up, even as the trend of civilization points down. Two different things. The gap between them is where this whole conversation lives.
A word on where the real work happens.
A zero on the sentiment index isn’t a reason to panic. It’s an entry point — but only if you know which names to own. That’s what we do in Crisis Investing. Last month we walked paid subscribers through the Ivanhoe sulfur story before it was on anyone’s radar; this episode’s setup in gold and oil is exactly the kind of hated-sector moment the newsletter is built for.
Doug and I aren’t trying to call the top of the SpaceX mania. We’re putting capital into the things nobody wants while they’re cheap. If you’d rather be early than comfortable, the paid subscription is where we name the specific companies, the entry prices, and the risk we’re taking. Upgrade to Crisis Investing and come buy the bottom with us.
Enjoy the weekend,
Matt
