Anyone wanting to dig into the history leading us to this point should watch James Corbett's two part documentary, "How and Why Big Oil Conquered the World."
The U.S. didn’t and can’t panic when they set all this into motion deliberately to exact this outcome. You don’t think they knew Iran would threaten to close or close the Hormuz strait? The intent was always to let the East know the U.S. can put them in a chokehold whenever they want. The U.S. already signaled this to Russia with Spiderweb. China was next. A not so elaborate ruse. There is no war. Only war games.
I am not knowledgeable enough to engage here, but I have been around long enough to have somewhat of an opinion re Iran's ability to disrupt what it can if it chooses. Let us say they block the passage. As you say, certain OIL investors will love it, but the five producing neighbors that will be blockaded certainly will not. Nor will the countries that buy from Iran. Something tells me that would make a sane person think about whether they have or don't have the proper cards to play. This country has been a firecracker in the region for most of my adult life, so I say if he wants to play, let him. Only this time, I would expect it to play out to its final conclusion. At least if I were responsible for taking the opposing position, I would take it to its end completely and decisively.
China was a logical recruit for the job of dissuading Iran since it’s mostly their oil. In addition, have you noticed Iran has zero air defenses? If they close the straight, their troops and equipment will be setting a very rapid course for the bottom of the ocean.
On Iran having “zero air defenses”—that’s not true. They’ve got plenty. Not as advanced as U.S. systems, sure, but they’ve built out layered defenses around key sites, especially near the Gulf. Plus, they’ve got the added bonus of asymmetric warfare: drones, missiles, and speedboats that make the Gulf a nightmare in any real fight. We’re not talking about hitting a few stationary buildings in the dead of night.
Regarding China, 30 percent is lower than I thought, but looks like another 50 percent goes to Chinas neighbors and allies. Point being, China has a bigger investment in that passage than we do. Is Iran likely to do it just for the pleasure of the chaos despite hurting one of their only allies? Maybe Iran will just be foolish enough to do it and we’ll get to see for sure, but based on their recent performance, I’d stick with my prediction that their capacity would be destroyed in days.
Thanks, Dr. B. You're partly right on the first point. Most of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz does go to Asia—about 80%, by most estimates. But not even half of it goes to China. It's more like 30%, based on the figures I’ve seen.
Anyone wanting to dig into the history leading us to this point should watch James Corbett's two part documentary, "How and Why Big Oil Conquered the World."
https://corbettreport.com/bigoil/
I learned a lot I hadn't known previously. Well worth a couple hours investment.
The U.S. didn’t and can’t panic when they set all this into motion deliberately to exact this outcome. You don’t think they knew Iran would threaten to close or close the Hormuz strait? The intent was always to let the East know the U.S. can put them in a chokehold whenever they want. The U.S. already signaled this to Russia with Spiderweb. China was next. A not so elaborate ruse. There is no war. Only war games.
I am not knowledgeable enough to engage here, but I have been around long enough to have somewhat of an opinion re Iran's ability to disrupt what it can if it chooses. Let us say they block the passage. As you say, certain OIL investors will love it, but the five producing neighbors that will be blockaded certainly will not. Nor will the countries that buy from Iran. Something tells me that would make a sane person think about whether they have or don't have the proper cards to play. This country has been a firecracker in the region for most of my adult life, so I say if he wants to play, let him. Only this time, I would expect it to play out to its final conclusion. At least if I were responsible for taking the opposing position, I would take it to its end completely and decisively.
China was a logical recruit for the job of dissuading Iran since it’s mostly their oil. In addition, have you noticed Iran has zero air defenses? If they close the straight, their troops and equipment will be setting a very rapid course for the bottom of the ocean.
On Iran having “zero air defenses”—that’s not true. They’ve got plenty. Not as advanced as U.S. systems, sure, but they’ve built out layered defenses around key sites, especially near the Gulf. Plus, they’ve got the added bonus of asymmetric warfare: drones, missiles, and speedboats that make the Gulf a nightmare in any real fight. We’re not talking about hitting a few stationary buildings in the dead of night.
Regarding China, 30 percent is lower than I thought, but looks like another 50 percent goes to Chinas neighbors and allies. Point being, China has a bigger investment in that passage than we do. Is Iran likely to do it just for the pleasure of the chaos despite hurting one of their only allies? Maybe Iran will just be foolish enough to do it and we’ll get to see for sure, but based on their recent performance, I’d stick with my prediction that their capacity would be destroyed in days.
The Houthis closed the Bab el Mondeb Strait to Israeli bound traffic. No reason Iran can't selectively close the Straits so Brics traffic continues.
Thanks, Dr. B. You're partly right on the first point. Most of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz does go to Asia—about 80%, by most estimates. But not even half of it goes to China. It's more like 30%, based on the figures I’ve seen.