When the Pentagon Orders Pizza, Pay Attention

Chart of the Week #55

Around 9:55 PM ET on Thursday, June 12, 2025, Israel launched a major strike on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Explosions hit Isfahan, Natanz, and other key sites. The damage was huge: over 70 people were killed, including at least 20 top Iranian commanders, among them Armed Forces Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri and Revolutionary Guards head Hossein Salami. Six nuclear scientists also died. Israel called it Operation Rising Lion — its biggest attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War.

Hours later, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued the following statement:

Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.

Very bold, very official — and very hard to buy.

For one, I’d be hard-pressed to believe the U.S. wasn’t involved, given how active the Pentagon was that night.

How do we know?

Because there’s a surprisingly reliable — if unconventional — indicator of activity inside the Pentagon: the Pentagon Pizza Index. It’s simple. If the pizza joints near the Pentagon suddenly get overwhelmed, something big is probably happening.

And sure enough, on Thursday night, just hours before the strikes, the four biggest pizza places closest to the Pentagon saw a major traffic spike.

For example, here’s a screenshot showing that the closest Domino’s to the Pentagon surged in traffic at 8:55 PM ET.

Source: Google

Now, while it might sound like internet folklore, this isn’t new. The Pentagon Pizza theory has been around for years. As The Takeout, a food culture site, noted earlier this year:

The theory is not something the internet just made up. Pentagon-adjacent pizza joints also got much busier than usual during Israel’s 2024 missile strike on Iran. There are a multitude of fast food restaurants in the Pentagon complex, but no pizza places.

Pizza deliveries to the Pentagon also reportedly doubled before the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989, and surged again ahead of Operation Desert Storm in 1991.

There’s even a dedicated Twitter account — @PenPizzaReport — that tracks these spikes in near real time.

But pizza isn’t the only signal.

Bar traffic tells a story too.

Freddie’s Beach Bar — the closest gay bar to the Pentagon — is usually packed on a Thursday night (shocking, I know). So when traffic drops off at Freddie’s, you can bet something serious is going down. That Pentagon crowd doesn’t skip happy hour at a place like that without a damn good reason.

Sure enough, traffic at Freddie’s cratered on the night of the strikes. Take a look at the chart below.

Source: Google

I guess when you know missiles are about to fly, even those gay margaritas have to wait.

Investment takeaway?

If you're thinking about investing in a business near the Pentagon and expect more (explosive) nights like this, make it a pizza joint — not a bar.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

Lau Vegys