They Fabricated Two-Thirds of Last Year's Jobs

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

I usually see little point in commenting on the monthly jobs reports—unless something truly remarkable or outrageous happens.

This month was different.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, with unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. On the surface, a solid report. Trump took a victory lap on Truth Social. Markets breathed a sigh of relief.

But as usual, the real story was buried in the fine print.

Morning Fog Economics

In addition to the January figures, the government quietly released its annual revision to prior data.

In 2025, the BLS published monthly jobs reports showing a cumulative 584,000 jobs created over the year. Turns out the real number was 181,000. Nearly 70% of last year’s job creation simply never happened.

Now, we’ve been down this road before. Back in August, I wrote about the BLS “miscalculating” job creation by 258,000 positions in just two months—May and June of last year. Trump was so furious he fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on the spot.

You’d think that would be the end of it. New leadership, clean slate, problem solved.

Nope.

The far more comprehensive data in the annual benchmark tells us the overreporting problem runs much deeper. It wasn’t two bad months. It was the whole year. The monthly revisions that were supposed to clean things up simply weren’t aggressive enough. When the fuller picture finally arrived, more than two-thirds of 2025’s reported job creation evaporated like morning fog.

Which raises the obvious question: if they were off by that much on the full year, why on earth would you trust January’s 130,000?

Headlines vs. Footnotes

Here’s the thing about government statistics: the headline number travels at the speed of news. The revision travels at the speed of a footnote.

We now know the government was overstating monthly job additions dramatically throughout 2025. Instead of the 49,000 jobs a month being reported at the time, the real figure was closer to 15,000. At that pace, the labor market wasn’t growing—it was essentially standing still.

This is broadly in line with—though still understating—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent admission that job figures were being overstated by as much as 60,000 jobs per month.

That figures.

Because even as the official data was painting a picture of a healthy labor market—which we now know wasn’t the case—the Fed cut rates three times in 2025. And they did so with inflation still running well above their 2% target. Clearly, they knew something the headlines didn’t.

But again, it’s all just a footnote now.

Everyone has already moved on. The narrative has been set. The policy decisions have been made. The damage is done.

Your Pay Cut Is Coming

Government lies aside, one last thing from the latest report…

According to the January data, wages are rising at roughly 3.7% year over year.

But here’s the problem: the real rate of inflation—measured by money supply growth, not the government’s CPI theater—is running closer to 5–6%.

That means most Americans are taking real pay cuts right now, whether they realize it or not.

But those pay cuts are about to get much worse.

As I’ve been writing to you lately, the Fed quietly turned the money printer back on December 12, pumping about $40 billion a month into Treasury bills.

Powell calls it “reserve management.” Others call it technical “plumbing.” We call it stealth money printing.

Because while it isn’t technically quantitative easing (QE)—the Fed isn’t buying long-dated Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities—it is money creation. Plain and simple. The Fed is injecting $40 billion in fresh liquidity into the system every single month.

History is also very clear on this point. Every time the Fed launches programs like this—whatever label it slaps on them—it ends the same way: with full-scale QE not far behind.

(I’ve covered this in more detail here.)

Now, if you’re an investor in precious metals, commodities, or mining stocks, this setup isn’t necessarily bad news. Money printing creates bubbles. And while bubbles destroy sound economies, they’re a speculator’s best friend.

But if you’re a worker—particularly in a sector vulnerable to slowdowns, restructuring, or automation—it’s a different story. Especially if you don’t own “unprintable” assets like gold.

Regards,

Lau Vegys

P.S. Doug Casey believes the Fed’s return to the printing press will set off a massive bubble in commodities—especially in monetary metals like gold and silver. That’s why a big portion of our Crisis Investing portfolio is in mining stocks, which Doug himself owns. In our latest issue, we outlined our thesis for the year (and raised buy guidance on several of our precious-metals positions). If you’re not yet a subscriber, the lead is free for all readers.