Comparing historical peaks of oil disruptions is very interesting, but to get the whole picture, of which I am admittedly not well versed on, we would need to look at the duration. For example, if the Arab oil embargo, which peaked at 7% supply constraint, lasted 3 times as long as the present situation does, it would have had a 21% impact.
(I don't remember how long it lasted, but I do remember the gas lines and the odd vs even license plate numbers for alternate days access.)
Perhaps you could take a look at the historical durations for us so we'll have a good perspective.
Anyway, obviously the longer this situation lasts the greater the impact will be.
The IEA has 1.2 million barrels of reserves, which includes 415 million barrels in the US SPR. In addition, industry in Europe holds another 600 million barrels in reserve in Europe per government mandate. Some of the US reserves have been released. My understanding is that none of Europe's has. Instead, they're buying ours.
For this reason, I'm more concerned about the non-oil exports that are tied up as the result of this war.
Europe is screwed. Cut off Putin oil and gas, closed their coal plants and turned to “green energy”, which is neither, but the USA is now a much bigger oil producer, Venezuela is coming back on line too, so, yes, this will have an impact in USA but not to the magnitude it would if this was 1979.
The West has been kicking ( and funding -Obama) the Iranian mess for over 50 yrs. We don’t need two North Koreas with nuclear weapons, so despite USA not wanting to be worlds cop, we are. And it gives USA a chance to reshuffle the deck to benefit us. As I see it the longer term benefits far outweigh the shorter term mess.
Europe will have to ditch green energy, buy LNG from us, settle their dispute with Putin or his successor. The world is awash in oil, gas and coal, ( companies like Frontieras are going to make trillion - literally- with their patented coal to refined products and then clean coal remainder still to burn for energy).
The market will adjust quickly. But yes, could be very very choppy in next 12 months. After that? The moon.
Comparing historical peaks of oil disruptions is very interesting, but to get the whole picture, of which I am admittedly not well versed on, we would need to look at the duration. For example, if the Arab oil embargo, which peaked at 7% supply constraint, lasted 3 times as long as the present situation does, it would have had a 21% impact.
(I don't remember how long it lasted, but I do remember the gas lines and the odd vs even license plate numbers for alternate days access.)
Perhaps you could take a look at the historical durations for us so we'll have a good perspective.
Anyway, obviously the longer this situation lasts the greater the impact will be.
This party is just getting started if the US doesn’t repent from all the bloodshed (mRNA & abortion).
The IEA has 1.2 million barrels of reserves, which includes 415 million barrels in the US SPR. In addition, industry in Europe holds another 600 million barrels in reserve in Europe per government mandate. Some of the US reserves have been released. My understanding is that none of Europe's has. Instead, they're buying ours.
For this reason, I'm more concerned about the non-oil exports that are tied up as the result of this war.
Europe is screwed. Cut off Putin oil and gas, closed their coal plants and turned to “green energy”, which is neither, but the USA is now a much bigger oil producer, Venezuela is coming back on line too, so, yes, this will have an impact in USA but not to the magnitude it would if this was 1979.
The West has been kicking ( and funding -Obama) the Iranian mess for over 50 yrs. We don’t need two North Koreas with nuclear weapons, so despite USA not wanting to be worlds cop, we are. And it gives USA a chance to reshuffle the deck to benefit us. As I see it the longer term benefits far outweigh the shorter term mess.
Europe will have to ditch green energy, buy LNG from us, settle their dispute with Putin or his successor. The world is awash in oil, gas and coal, ( companies like Frontieras are going to make trillion - literally- with their patented coal to refined products and then clean coal remainder still to burn for energy).
The market will adjust quickly. But yes, could be very very choppy in next 12 months. After that? The moon.
Nothing ever happens.
:)