No, 400 Million Barrels Isn't Enough to Fix Hormuz
Chart of the Week #93
Oil spiked to nearly $120 per barrel last week. Then it crashed back down. What happened?
If you think it was just Trump telling CBS News the war was “very complete, pretty much”—and markets buying it—there’s more to the story.
You see, the International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized the largest emergency oil stockpile release in history. And when I say largest, I mean it's not even close.
First, a quick primer on what the IEA actually does. It's a club of 38 wealthy nations formed in the 1970s to coordinate responses to energy crises. Member countries are required to stockpile strategic petroleum reserves—at least 90 days' worth of net imports. When a crisis hits, the IEA can coordinate a collective release to stabilize markets. Or attempt to, anyway.
That’s what just happened. And the scale is unprecedented.
As you can see from the chart above, the IEA has committed to releasing 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Compare that to previous releases: First Gulf War, 75 million barrels. Hurricane Katrina and Libya, 60 million each. Ukraine in 2022, 183 million.
It dwarfs every single one of them. In fact, this release is larger than all previous IEA interventions in history—combined.
So has it worked?
Well... sort of. Oil did fall after the announcement. But not by much. And here’s the thing most people miss: when it comes to oil, what matters isn’t the total number of barrels released. What matters is the flow.
Oil markets don’t run on stockpiles. They run on daily flows. For all the noise from environmental extremists and green do-gooders, the reality is that our global economy still runs on oil. Every single day. Factories need it. Trucks need it. Ships need it. Planes need it. Petrochemicals go into everything from plastics to pharmaceuticals. The machine doesn’t stop.
And that machine runs on about 100 million barrels per day. Every day. That’s the baseline flow the world needs to keep the lights on and the supply chains moving.
The Strait of Hormuz, before it closed, was supplying around 15 million barrels of that daily flow. That’s gone now. And replacing 15 million barrels per day is a completely different problem than releasing 400 million barrels total.
Reserve releases buy time. They don’t solve the problem.
And the thing about strategic stockpiles is once you’re done draining them, they’re gone.
Sure, pipeline rerouting through Saudi Arabia and the UAE may help too. The shadow fleet—tankers running through Hormuz with their transponders off—helps a little. But even when you add it all up, there’s still a gap. A significant one.
We’ll dig into why that gap matters—and what it means for energy markets and investors who understand what’s actually happening here—in much greater detail in our upcoming issue. For now, just know this: 400 million barrels sounds like a lot. But in a world that burns through 100 million barrels every single day, it’s a temporary fix at best.
Regards,
Lau Vegys
P.S. As Doug Casey recently warned, the Iran crisis could be “the pin that the bubble has finally found.” In our latest Crisis Investing alert, we recommended a position designed to capitalize on what’s unfolding—and the market vulnerabilities that will persist long after the headlines fade.
Hardly surprising, has been reported a short was placed just prior the second pronouncement yesterday regarding the Straits of Hormuz being opened via U.S military, in a repeat of the same nefarious post by the U.S Transport Secretary who, immediately upon being checked on the veracity of content posted pulled the post, meanwhile as noted a short that netted the, trader.. USD$100million in the 8minutes it took to pst and delete was the time required to mint a small fortune.
Wake up America, this is a classic example of what your incessant warmongering is all about, a perpetual rinse, repeat, by insiders trading off of the innocent blood and lives destroyed, it is vile, repugnant, evil, and yes, the world sees it and holds the entire U.S electorate responsible the reprobates and criminals you repeatedly elect…
Clean house, vote independent, it matters not who, time to take out the trash, clean house, clean it up, your being played, suckered, your young men and woman used, worse, the Military has gone complete Zionist Evangelical watch this great documentary by the outstanding American correspondent Patrick Henningsen and his team .. detailing Evangelism in the Military… sick.. a boundary crossed between state and religion, promoting Zionist Evangelism so much for separation of the same…I feel those serving with alternate religious beliefs, Catholic, Buddhist, Christian, Hindu etc.. Muslim no room it seems for them..
SUNDAY WIRE - 'Masters of War: The Sequel" with Patrick Henningsen via the link below….
https://youtu.be/VdP5Z_XwD-Y?si=R689NK_I-n-co7bZ
Meanwhile for those with a history bent, your present administration reminds me of Emperor Crassus, who because of a love of money, woman, gold, wealth led his Roman Army to destruction and when defeated, Crassus captured, the Parthians correctly resulting the death and destruction he had wrought put a hole in his skull and poured molten gold into his head… fitting wouldn’t you say… read, learn and be educated… who said history never repeats …
The complete account is via the link below… enjoy…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Licinius_Crassus
Crassus received Syria as his province, which promised to be an inexhaustible source of wealth. It might have been, had he not also sought military glory and crossed the Euphrates in an attempt to conquer Parthia.
Crassus attacked Parthia not only because of its great source of riches, but because of a desire to match the military victories of Pompey and Caesar. The king of Armenia, Artavasdes II, offered Crassus the aid of nearly 40,000 troops (10,000 cataphracts and 30,000 infantrymen) on the condition that Crassus invade through Armenia so that the king could not only maintain the upkeep of his own troops but also provide a safer route for his men and Crassus.[42]
Crassus refused, and chose the more direct route by crossing the Euphrates, as he had done in his successful campaign in the previous year.
Crassus received directions from the Osroene chieftain Ariamnes, who had previously assisted Pompey in his eastern campaigns.[43] Ariamnes was in the pay of the Parthians and urged Crassus to attack at once, falsely stating that the Parthians were weak and unorganized. He then led Crassus' army into the desert, far from any water. In 53 BC, at the Battle of Carrhae (modern Harran, in Turkey), Crassus' legions were defeated by a numerically inferior Parthian force. Crassus' legions were primarily heavy infantry, and not prepared for an attack by swift mounted archers, a tactic that Parthian troops had mastered.
The Parthian horse archers devastated the unprepared Romans with hit-and-run tactics, feigning retreats as they shot to their rear.[44] Crassus refused his quaestor Gaius Cassius Longinus' plans to reconstitute the Roman battle line, and remained in the testudo formation to protect his flanks, boasting he would do so until the Parthians eventually ran out of arrows.
The Parthians brought camels carrying arrows, plenty of them, numbering more than the numbers of Crassus’s Army, you could replace such with what we know today, PATRIOT and THAAD, batteries and missiles to continuously resupply their archers, Replace with as we know today…to Defend against Iranian Missiles and Drones however, back to Crassus interaction the Parthians, Crassus… letting them relentlessly barrage the Romans until dusk. Despite taking severe casualties, the Romans successfully retreated to Carrhae, forced to leave many wounded behind to be slaughtered by the Parthians.[citation needed]
Subsequently, Crassus' men, being near mutiny, demanded he parley with the Parthians, who had offered to meet with him. Crassus, despondent at the death of his son Publius in the battle, finally agreed to meet the Parthian general Surena. When Crassus mounted a horse to ride to the Parthian camp for a peace negotiation, his junior officer Octavius suspected a Parthian trap and grabbed Crassus' horse by the bridle, instigating a sudden fight with the Parthians that left all the Romans dead, including Crassus.[45] A story later emerged that, after Crassus' death, the Parthians poured molten gold into his mouth to mock his known greed, his thirst for wealth.[46]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Licinius_Crassus
For those less enamoured the above military, empirical ancient history, perhaps a parallel citing poetry is more your thing, again if so, I suggest this piece of prose might sate your enjoyment of the same whilst again illustrating the present… especially of those who have sworn to serve… you, your loved ones, friends, colleagues , communities and nation… best always… enjoy.
“Just for a handful of Silver, he left us
just for a Riband to Stick in his Coat…….”
Hubris, arrogance, ego, all nicely enunciated… know anyone leading you this describes aptly?
The Lost Leader (poem)
"The Lost Leader" is an 1845 poem by Robert Browning first published in his book Dramatic Romances and Lyrics. It berates William Wordsworth for what Browning considered his desertion of the liberal cause,[1] and his lapse from his high idealism.[2] More generally, it is an attack on any liberal leader who has deserted his cause. It is one of Browning's "best known, if not actually best, poems".[3]
Text follows:
Just for a handful of silver he left us,
Just for a riband[4] to stick in his coat—
Found the one gift of which fortune bereft us,
Lost all the others she lets us devote;
They, with the gold to give, doled him out silver,
So much was theirs who so little allowed:
How all our copper had gone for his service!
Rags—were they purple, his heart had been proud!
We that had loved him so, followed him, honoured him,
Lived in his mild and magnificent eye,
Learned his great language, caught his clear accents,
Made him our pattern to live and to die!
Shakespeare was of us, Milton was for us,
Burns, Shelley, were with us,—they watch from their graves!
He alone breaks from the van and the freemen, —
He alone sinks to the rear and the slaves!
We shall march prospering,—not thro' his presence;
Songs may inspirit us,—not from his lyre;
Deeds will be done,—while he boasts his quiescence,
Still bidding crouch whom the rest bade aspire:
Blot out his name, then, record one lost soul more,
One task more declined, one more footpath untrod,
One more devils'-triumph[5] and sorrow for angels,
One wrong more to man, one more insult to God!
Life's night begins: let him never come back to us!
There would be doubt, hesitation and pain,
Forced praise on our part—the glimmer of twilight,
Never glad confident morning again!
Best fight on well, for we taught him—strike gallantly,
Menace our heart ere we master his own;[6]
Then let him receive the new knowledge and wait us,
Pardoned in heaven, the first by the throne![7]
Just saying, Kia Kaha (Stay strong) From New Zealand
1.How much is the price in US or swiss francs
2. Iwould like to ask Doug something about Uruguay, what is his emailadress?
Thanks