Iran’s Always ‘Weeks Away’

Who’s Getting Played Here?

However you feel about Trump's recent bombing of Iran, you can't deny one thing...

This was a massive middle finger to his own base.

Only 19% of Americans who voted for Trump supported joining Israel's war. Just look at the chart below from YouGov's June 13-16 survey—done literally days before President Trump signed off on the biggest military escalation in the Middle East since Iraq.

Source: Statista

Maybe we can get Israel to tell Trump to stop the runaway deficits? Pay down the $37 trillion debt? Finally build that damn wall?

Hell, maybe Israel can tell Trump to release the Epstein files while they're at it.

Okay, okay—I got a little carried away. Back to planet Earth.

Netanyahu’s Broken Record

Looking at that chart, the divide on the right isn't the 50/50 split everyone talks about. It's more like 67% opposed vs 33% in favor—and that's assuming the "don't knows" split evenly when forced to pick a side.

Tucker Carlson nailed the majority position when he recently told Ted Cruz:

We should be very careful about entering into more foreign wars that don't help us when our country is dying.

Hard to argue with that logic.

But what about the hawks? What about those claiming there's an obvious benefit to stopping one of America's harshest enemies from getting nukes?

Look, I get the argument. But there's one thing that's impossible to ignore: history.

Netanyahu’s basically been claiming Iran is "weeks away" from a bomb for over three decades.

Here's the greatest hits compilation:

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Parliament, 1995: Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb.

Benjamin Netanyahu, "Fighting Terrorism" book, 1995: The best estimates at this time place Iran between three and five years away from possessing the prerequisites required for the independent production of nuclear weapons.

Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. House of Representatives, 2002: The deadline for attaining this goal is extremely close. And Iran, by the way, is also outpacing Iraq in the development of ballistic missile systems that they hope will reach the eastern seaboard of the United States within 15 years.

Benjamin Netanyahu, United Nations General Assembly, 2012: By next spring—at most, by next summer—at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage. From there, it’s only a few months—possibly a few weeks—before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.

Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. Congress, 2015: The foremost sponsor of global terrorism could be weeks away from having enough enriched uranium for an entire arsenal of nuclear weapons.

And here was Netanyahu 11 days ago, still singing the same tune:

If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time.

Now, I'm not saying it will or won't happen. And I certainly understand why Israelis don't want a nuclear-armed Iran next door. But given Bibi's track record on this subject, let's just say I wasn't losing sleep over it.

But you know what does keep me up at night? History. Again.

The Real Cost of ‘Regime Change’

Middle Eastern regime change—every single time—leads to complete chaos, mass-casualty terror attacks in the West, and massive waves of migrants flooding into Western countries. The result? Accelerated Balkanization and societal collapse.

Even Trump's most loyal defenders like Charlie Kirk admitted this a few days ago.

The playbook never changes: The U.S. and its allies bomb some country, stir up generational hatred, then turn around and open the floodgates—inviting in the very people they just bombed.

And then they act shocked when some fundamentalist starts mowing people down at a Christmas market.

Brilliant strategy, really.

You thought Afghanistan, Libya, or Syria was bad? Well, Iran has nearly ninety-two million people—that’s more than twice Afghanistan, thirteen times Libya, and nearly four times Syria. If those interventions unleashed chaos, just imagine what this one could do.

And let’s not kid ourselves—when the blowback comes, whatever form it takes, it’s not going to land on the neocons. It’s not going to hurt the think tank ghouls or the war lobbyists. It’s going to hit us. The regular people. The ones who always pay the price.

Look, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Trump's right and it's all over.

But here's what I know for certain: Americans voted for Trump to stop the invasion of their country—not to enable the potential invasion of a country 7,000 miles away.

Regards,

Lau Vegys