Gold's Surging—And So Is This Position (Time for a Casey Free Ride)
'Crisis Investing' Alert
Dear Crisis Investing Subscribers,
We’ve got another winner that’s more than doubled. If you’re a regular reader, you know what comes next: it’s time to take our Casey Free Ride and let the rest run for free.
But before we get into the details, I want to talk about what just happened to gold.
This past weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered one of the most dramatic safe-haven rallies in modern history. Gold surged nearly 6%—blasting from around $5,100 per ounce to over $5,390 in a matter of hours. By Monday morning, it briefly reclaimed $5,400 before settling around $5,360.
To put that in perspective: a 6% move in a few hours is extraordinary for gold—especially when the metal was already up 25% year-to-date and sitting near record highs after posting its best annual performance in 46 years in 2025.
Historical data shows that gold averages just 0.3% in the first week of conflicts and 8.98% over 12 months. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, gold rallied 8.2% in the first month. After 9/11, it gained 5.9% over 30 days. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, it rose 7.5% over six months.
For gold to surge this aggressively from an already-extended position tells you something important: markets are treating this conflict differently.
And there’s good reason for that. Unlike previous Middle East tensions, this one threatens the Strait of Hormuz—the chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. As I detailed in yesterday’s essay, the effective closure of Hormuz represents an unprecedented supply disruption risk. Oil prices spiked 13% on Monday, their largest single-day gain in four years, as tanker traffic ground to a halt and insurers pulled coverage for Gulf shipments.
Your guess is as good as mine as to which of these scenarios currently on the table—short war or long war—becomes reality. But one thing is clear: gold is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do, preserve wealth during crisis.
Which brings me to a position that’s benefited from exactly this environment—a junior gold company we recommended a little over a year ago that’s now up 115%, pushing it squarely into Casey Free Ride territory.