Gold’s New All-Time High Is Here — Here’s How We’ll Profit

'Crisis Investing' Issue 9 / September 2025 – Vol 2

Dear Reader,

Gold did it again.

On September 29th — just yesterday — the metal touched $3,833 per ounce, marking yet another all-time high in what has become an extraordinary bull run.

In fact, September alone saw gold notch ten separate record highs.

Naturally, the question you might be asking: Have we missed the boat?

My answer: we’re just leaving the dock.

Let me explain.

You see, there’s something that makes this rally different from every other gold run in recent memory. It’s not being fueled primarily by Western investors panicking into a safe haven — not yet at least. No — the real story is unfolding quietly in the vaults of central banks around the world.

The Central Bank Buying Spree

For three consecutive years, central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually. To put that in perspective, the average annual buying in the decade before 2022 was just 400-500 tons. In other words, they’ve more than doubled their accumulation rate.

And they’re not slowing down.

In fact, central banks are now buying roughly 80 metric tons per month, equivalent to ~$9.8 billion at current prices. Poland added 67 tons in the first half of 2025 alone. Turkey has been a net buyer for 26 consecutive months. China continued purchases for nine straight months through mid-2025, though many analysts believe their actual buying is substantially higher than officially reported.

As for what’s ahead, the World Gold Council’s latest survey showed a record 43% of central bankers plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months — up from just 29% a year ago. And 95% believe global official gold reserves will continue to increase.

Think about that for a moment. The institutions that manage trillions in reserves – the most risk-averse financial managers on the planet – are nearly unanimous in their conviction that gold accumulation will accelerate.

Why They’re Buying

The official line is always “diversification.” But look deeper and the real motivation becomes clear: central banks are preparing for a multipolar world — one where the dollar’s dominance is a thing of the past.

The wheels have been turning on this for a while. Consider this…

The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen from over 70% in 2000 to about 58% today. Over the same period, gold’s share has risen from roughly 8% to nearly 15%. And in the World Gold Council’s latest survey, 73% of central bankers said they expect global dollar holdings to be moderately or significantly lower within the next five years.

So when Doug Casey, Matt Smith, and I talk about the coming end of dollar dominance, it isn’t anti-American sentiment. It’s simply an acknowledgment of mathematical reality.

Remember, right now the U.S. government is burning through $1.2 trillion a year just to service its $37 trillion debt load — more than the entire defense budget. There’s no path to fiscal sustainability that doesn’t involve either massive spending cuts (politically impossible) or debasing the currency through inflation (politically convenient).

Central banks understand this. That’s why they’re loading up on the one asset that can’t be printed away: gold.

And Then Came the Fed Cut

This brings us neatly to the Federal Reserve — the world’s most important central bank (for the time being, at least).

On September 17th, the Fed gave the market exactly what it wanted: a rate cut. The move was 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 4.00–4.25%.

The official justification was “softening labor markets” and “downside risks.” But here’s the uncomfortable truth the Fed can’t say out loud: they’re cutting rates even as their own projections show GDP growth rising from 1.4% to 1.6%. They’re cutting with inflation stuck at 3.0% — the same as three months ago and still a full point above target. Core PCE inflation is 2.9%, with projections pushing it up to 3.1% by year-end.

In other words, the economy is growing faster than expected and inflation is getting worse, yet they’re cutting anyway. This isn’t the data-dependent monetary policy the Fed likes to pretend it follows. This is President Trump forcing the Fed’s hand.

And everyone knows more cuts are coming. The Fed’s own projections now show two additional cuts by year-end, up from one just a few months ago. The message is clear: The era of tight money is over.

The Inevitable Return of Money Printing

But rate cuts are just the opening act.

Remember, the Fed only controls short-term rates. Long-term rates — like 10-year Treasurys and mortgages — are set by the market.

The Fed can’t just wave a magic wand at an FOMC meeting and force interest rates lower across the entire yield curve. Case in point: between September and December 2024, the Fed cut rates three times — a full percentage point — yet U.S. government bond yields actually rose by 1%.

And so the real show will begin when it becomes clear that cutting short-term rates isn’t enough to bring down the long-term borrowing costs that matter most — mortgages and government financing.

When that moment comes, the Fed will be left with one option: direct intervention in the bond market through large-scale asset purchases. Quantitative easing. Or in plain English: money printing.

And here’s the kicker.

When they restart QE — and they will — it won’t be into a drained system. They’ll be injecting new money into one already bloated with $2.6 trillion in excess pandemic-era liquidity.

And that’s the problem.

Because last time they conjured up trillions out of thin air during the pandemic, inflation ripped to 9% — the highest in forty years. With so much cash still sloshing around from back then, starting another money-printing cycle all but guarantees double-digit inflation.

We’re talking potential currency destruction on a scale — and at a speed — America has never seen.

Gold Isn’t Expensive Right Now

Which brings us full circle to gold — the best hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and fiscal recklessness.

Major investment banks are starting to revise their forecasts upward. J.P. Morgan now projects gold will hit $4,000 by mid-2026. Goldman Sachs has laid out similar targets.

But here’s what makes even those forecasts look conservative: they assume central bank buying slows and Fed policy normalizes without a hitch. Neither assumption looks realistic given the current trajectory.

If central banks maintain their current pace of accumulation — and every sign suggests many will — that adds nearly $117 billion in annual demand at today’s gold price. Layer in retail investors waking up to inflation (and by most measures, they haven’t yet), plus the likely return of QE, and you have the foundation for a sustained bull market. That kind of setup could push gold well past $4,000 by early 2026, and perhaps even toward $5,000 by year-end — depending on how much demand surprises to the upside.

The bottom line: gold isn’t expensive at $3,800. It’s just catching up to the monetary reality central banks have been pricing in for years.

The Best Way to Play It

And so, going into 2026, the key question for investors isn’t whether to own gold exposure — it’s how to own it.

Physical gold is great for preserving wealth and anchoring a long-term portfolio. But it generates no cash flow. This means no leverage.

And I don’t know about you, but with mining companies as a percentage of global stock market value trading at levels not seen in over 120 years (as I showed you in last week’s Chart of the Week), I want some leverage.

So what to buy?

Junior explorers and developers can deliver explosive gains when everything aligns — 5x, 10x, or more. But they’re hit-or-miss. Many burn through cash and go bust even in bull markets.

Developers have their own hurdles: long timelines, big costs, and the constant risk of share dilution to fund construction. Even strong projects can be delayed for years by permits or financing.

The point is, both juniors and developers have their place. But when gold looks like a sure thing — as it does right now — you want something different: certainty of leverage. Not just theoretical upside, but tangible, predictable exposure to rising gold prices with fewer unknowns.

That’s exactly what traditional gold producers offer. When margins double or triple and production holds steady, free cash flow explodes. Stock prices of well-run producers can climb 100%, 150%, or more — far outpacing the metal itself.

But sometimes, when valuations line up, there’s an even better option. Which brings us to this month’s recommendation.