7 Comments
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Noah Roy-Campeau's avatar

Solid insight. Gold is owned for safety, not upside, so capital buys the metal, not the miners.

When sentiment shifts from protection to speculation, the ratio doesn’t rise slowly… it snaps.

The Valuation Framework's avatar

Strong chart! This ratio is a clean way to show the disconnect. I’m currently researching the gold market and tying it into a deeper dive on B2Gold. From what I’m seeing, today’s gold price looks well supported by central bank demand, so the downside may be more limited than people fear. Another interesting point: in many Western portfolios gold is still a tiny allocation of <1%, while it’s increasingly treated as a sensible “insurance” asset. Meaning there’s still room for reallocation from retail investors.

At the same time, the discount on miners isn’t coming out of nowhere: weak EPS in parts of the sector, cost inflation, and the usual operational + jurisdiction risk. Still, I agree the gap looks too wide and that’s exactly what can create a compelling setup when cashflows start to show up. If you’re interested, I’ll share my research next Wednesday on my Substack.

Gary's avatar

I don't think precedent is a reliable indicator of what may happen in the future. We're living in very differrnt times now. Last time the price of miners increased it probably wasn't considered necessary to relocate to a ranch un Uruguay.

El Senor Martinez's avatar

Okay let me ask, but what if gold comes down and normalizes that. Or what if miners and gold come down together. That will still make them seem expensive today if you buy them today.

El Senor Martinez's avatar

Because I bought a bunch of silver miners last week on the same thesis. And they are absolutely gutted right now. So I think miners can still get a lot cheaper.

AwakeningTV2's avatar

Timing is important. Buy before the crowd. For example Oil is what you should be buying.

Les Ranger's avatar

Just waiting a bit until metal prices settle down before starting or adding to positions. Very good information.