Hunt just tells it like it is. But these are economic confusions that need to be corected, clarified. Important to take one sensible step at a time. Doing it right. Thanks. And for this beautiful summation:
"The Gross Domestic Product is a product of the Ministry of Truth. By far the best thing that governments can do is to stop wasting money measuring it.
I generally ignore GDP. I prefer to pay attention to my personal domestic product. Am I producing more than I consume, and doing so morally? Am I saving and investing the surplus? Am I recognizing my asset depreciation?
In sum, am I growing an honestly calculated net worth? That’s a much more valuable measurement than counting how many holes I’m digging and then filling in with the same dirt.
Saw this video earlier. Thought it was brilliant at explaining the current situation with AI in comparison to 2008. I do believe however there was a silver bullet in play. In 2021 I believe our betters were overly confident they could bring Russia, Iran, and China under their control and swindle their resources. I now believe they have failed.
Never heard of this cat before. Makes sense. And we are headed there now at the speed of light.
good vid and explanation.Thanks for posting it. Not all mortgages were 2/28 mortgages. Reasonable guess is that about 8% of total outstanding mortgages were 2/28s in that era. But even though a small percentage, they were sure a relevant domino. The hyperscalers aren't considered subprime. They aren't undeserved of credit. The concern is that they are relying on AI to provide future cash flow. If that fails, then their own profits (absent the contracted AI deals) will be consumed servicing debt. And cash flow will all go negative, NAV will get marked down, and their stock prices will fall. Does that take down the rest of the market? Or just the collective indices in which the hyperscalers are a large fraction). I need to parse through the rationale for the hyperscalers to build out for contracts made for hoped-for AI expansion. Do they have backup plans for those data center buildouts? Do they have backup sales plans to sell unused "compute" to the surveillance state? Do they give a crap about their investors? Do they have reason to expect the Fed to print currency units to buy their stock?
Or are they right in predicting that indeed the AI growth continue to accelerate?
AI "feels" wicked bubbly. It values out as wicked bubbly. It's a speculation that you best know a lot about before taking. Seems likely that there will be a shakeout.. And that will be the time to carefully get in.
Hunt just tells it like it is. But these are economic confusions that need to be corected, clarified. Important to take one sensible step at a time. Doing it right. Thanks. And for this beautiful summation:
"The Gross Domestic Product is a product of the Ministry of Truth. By far the best thing that governments can do is to stop wasting money measuring it.
I generally ignore GDP. I prefer to pay attention to my personal domestic product. Am I producing more than I consume, and doing so morally? Am I saving and investing the surplus? Am I recognizing my asset depreciation?
In sum, am I growing an honestly calculated net worth? That’s a much more valuable measurement than counting how many holes I’m digging and then filling in with the same dirt.
Maybe that was the plan from the beginning so we might move to the reset ?
That final picture tells the whole story.
Saw this video earlier. Thought it was brilliant at explaining the current situation with AI in comparison to 2008. I do believe however there was a silver bullet in play. In 2021 I believe our betters were overly confident they could bring Russia, Iran, and China under their control and swindle their resources. I now believe they have failed.
Never heard of this cat before. Makes sense. And we are headed there now at the speed of light.
https://x.com/jaymartinbc/status/2086692921559097549?s=42
good vid and explanation.Thanks for posting it. Not all mortgages were 2/28 mortgages. Reasonable guess is that about 8% of total outstanding mortgages were 2/28s in that era. But even though a small percentage, they were sure a relevant domino. The hyperscalers aren't considered subprime. They aren't undeserved of credit. The concern is that they are relying on AI to provide future cash flow. If that fails, then their own profits (absent the contracted AI deals) will be consumed servicing debt. And cash flow will all go negative, NAV will get marked down, and their stock prices will fall. Does that take down the rest of the market? Or just the collective indices in which the hyperscalers are a large fraction). I need to parse through the rationale for the hyperscalers to build out for contracts made for hoped-for AI expansion. Do they have backup plans for those data center buildouts? Do they have backup sales plans to sell unused "compute" to the surveillance state? Do they give a crap about their investors? Do they have reason to expect the Fed to print currency units to buy their stock?
Or are they right in predicting that indeed the AI growth continue to accelerate?
AI "feels" wicked bubbly. It values out as wicked bubbly. It's a speculation that you best know a lot about before taking. Seems likely that there will be a shakeout.. And that will be the time to carefully get in.
100% correct, they do it to fool the stupid...... and most people are stupid, sorry to say.
Thanx, Doc.
I wish I could explain it without blurring lines.
Kudos.