I’d be surprised if there were NO quantitive easing. It’s the most obvious, logical next stage of our charade we call progress through history. Anybody with even the slightest clue about economics knows how this plays out. The real issue is, are we smart enough to position ourselves to dodge this bullet.A little bit of paranoia can save your ass, but it means standing apart from the crowd and taking some flack from friends.
Fasinating framing on the pivot from QT to QE as inevitable rather than discretionary. The timing, with Hassett's likely appointment to the Fed chair aligning with the end of quantitive tightening, feels like a coordinated step toward Trump's larger goal of controling long term yields. Your point about overnight repo injections already occuring quietly while the Fed insists its not stimulus captures how policy often moves faster than the offical narrative can keep up with.
All of the people investing in silver, gold, and metals, where will the physical product be when all of this is said and done? Most likely not in your possession.
His point is if trump gets his man they will push short rates down so much that hopefully that will be reflected in long rates as well. There are 1000s of variables and players that affect yields across the time spectrum. my base case is higher as after QE 1-4 long term rates have actually gone higher
Long term rates may rise initially but they seem to be slowly heading down. They are impossible to predict. The bond market is manipulated imo. As are almost all markets in the modern era.
What happens if Hassett cuts big as soon as he gets in, which is followed by massive inflationary impulse 6-12 months later? Won't the resultant market tantrum force risk off (including metals) and the cause the admin to force him out, thus renewing a hiking cycle?
Thanks
https://organon.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/175137372?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts%2Fpublished%3Fsearch%3Dtighte
When rates are slashed, gold will explode to the upside because of growing fear of a bear market.
I’d be surprised if there were NO quantitive easing. It’s the most obvious, logical next stage of our charade we call progress through history. Anybody with even the slightest clue about economics knows how this plays out. The real issue is, are we smart enough to position ourselves to dodge this bullet.A little bit of paranoia can save your ass, but it means standing apart from the crowd and taking some flack from friends.
Fasinating framing on the pivot from QT to QE as inevitable rather than discretionary. The timing, with Hassett's likely appointment to the Fed chair aligning with the end of quantitive tightening, feels like a coordinated step toward Trump's larger goal of controling long term yields. Your point about overnight repo injections already occuring quietly while the Fed insists its not stimulus captures how policy often moves faster than the offical narrative can keep up with.
All of the people investing in silver, gold, and metals, where will the physical product be when all of this is said and done? Most likely not in your possession.
Why would long term yields dip on that announcement? I thought it would be the opposite. I would appreciate your clarification.
His point is if trump gets his man they will push short rates down so much that hopefully that will be reflected in long rates as well. There are 1000s of variables and players that affect yields across the time spectrum. my base case is higher as after QE 1-4 long term rates have actually gone higher
Long term rates may rise initially but they seem to be slowly heading down. They are impossible to predict. The bond market is manipulated imo. As are almost all markets in the modern era.
What happens if Hassett cuts big as soon as he gets in, which is followed by massive inflationary impulse 6-12 months later? Won't the resultant market tantrum force risk off (including metals) and the cause the admin to force him out, thus renewing a hiking cycle?