Not so long ago, President Donald Trump was rolling out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin. Earlier this year, he invited the Russian president to a summit in Alaska—a symbolic olive branch meant to keep Moscow from fully committing to Beijing’s orbit.
The strategy seemed logical enough: keep Russia at arm’s length from China, sow divisions within BRICS, and maybe—just maybe—broker a peace deal in Ukraine that would cement Trump’s legacy as a dealmaker.
But that plan’s in shambles now.
Yesterday, Trump announced what he called “tremendous” new sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil—Russia’s two largest oil producers—effectively blacklisting them from the Western financial system. That means:
They can’t use dollar-based transactions.
They lose access to Western banks, insurers, and trading partners.
Even neutral countries (like Singapore) may back away for fear of secondary sanctions.
Trump framed the decision as the culmination of “months of fruitless diplomacy.” From his perspective, the Alaska summit achieved little—and the calls afterward weren’t much better.
Donald J. Trump: Every time I speak to Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they don’t go anywhere. I just felt it was time. We waited a long time.
The first real sign that Trump was about to turn up the heat on Russia came when the planned Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest, Hungary, was put on ice earlier this week.
And now that’s exactly what happened. Here’s what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in the official release announcing the sanctions:
Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire. Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.
Beyond Russia
What makes this especially notable—and the reason I’m writing about it at all—is that these are the first direct sanctions Trump has imposed on Russia over the Ukraine war since taking office for his second term.
And it really feels like this could be the tipping point… not just for U.S.–Russia relations, but for America’s broader relationship with the Global South—BRICS in particular.
Let me explain.
On the surface, these sanctions look like a big deal. Rosneft and Lukoil are the backbone of Russia’s energy sector. Together, they account for nearly half of Russia’s oil production—about 5 million barrels per day, or roughly 5% of global supply.
By blacklisting both companies, the U.S. Treasury has effectively cut them off from the Western financial system. In practical terms, that means it’s now much harder for them to sell oil abroad, hedge prices, or even cover shipping and maintenance.
Note: Russia has already been largely shut out of Western energy markets since 2022–2023. So this latest move doesn’t really change where Russia can sell—it changes how it can sell, by tightening the screws on financing, insurance, and logistics (that keep those exports flowing to Asia).
Geopolitically, it’s a direct strike at Russia’s main source of revenue—oil and gas taxes account for roughly a quarter of the Kremlin’s budget.
But there are two major caveats.
First, Moscow’s already shown it can adapt. When Western sanctions hit in 2022, it quickly rerouted exports to Asia. By 2023, tankers that once served Europe were streaming to Indian and Chinese ports instead. The result? The money kept flowing.
There’s no reason it couldn’t do the same again now—especially if it’s willing to cut prices. After all, Russia’s already built the infrastructure to make it happen—from its “shadow fleet” of tankers to alternative insurers and non-dollar payment systems that keep the oil moving.
Second, oil is a global commodity. Even if Russia sells less of it, a higher global price means each barrel earns more. Prices jumped 5–10% right after the new sanctions were announced—and that alone could offset much of the lost volume, especially if Russia keeps expanding its markets in China and India.
Note: Those two countries—the world’s most populous—are now Moscow’s biggest customers. China bought over 100 million tons of Russian crude last year, nearly 20% of its total imports. India, which purchased almost none before the Ukraine war, has imported around $140 billion worth of Russian oil since 2022.
And that’s exactly why I think this whole “let’s punish Russia” business could push America’s relationship with BRICS to a breaking point.
Because Trump will escalate.
He knows these realities. He understands that with China and India still buying Russian oil, these sanctions are basically toothless.
Remember, Trump already slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods earlier this year—“retaliation,” he called it, for New Delhi’s ongoing purchases of Russian crude. And since then, he’s been pressing both India and China to halt Russian oil imports altogether, warning that there’ll be a price to pay if they don’t.
How far he’s willing to take it is still an open question. But one thing seems clear: this marks the beginning of a new phase in Trump’s economic offensive—not only against Russia, but against the global order that’s kept its oil flowing.
The irony, of course, is that in trying to project U.S. strength, Trump is accelerating the very forces that weaken it. As I’ve said before—
Every tariff WILL make dollar alternatives more attractive.
Every threat WILL push BRICS members closer together.
Every sanctions regime WILL prove why they need payment systems that don’t run through New York.
In the end, it all adds up to the same outcome: a faster march toward a post-dollar world.
Regards,
Lau Vegys
Whoop, whoop, hallelujah BIC, bloviator in chief, Trump has succumbed to neocon warmongering escalatory pressure, in so doing he has cemented Russia completely backing off the duplicit, lying, bellicose belligerent U.S, recall the current conflict is a U.S construct and Trump despite his protestations as to the conflagration being Uncle Joes War, now well and truly owns it.
At least Russia won’t have to deal with a speak both sides of your mouth, untrustworthy U.S, remember the machinations of peace offered Iran before he, Trump Green lighted, celebrated the Zionists bombing Iran, ditto taking credit the terrorist pager incident, an incident that indiscriminately targeted all comers, woman, children, elderly, the sick and infirm.. handicapped, even homosexuals and transgenders in Iran were hit, all resulting a celebrated by Trump indiscriminate act of violence.
The U.S under Trump, he who lauds and self congratulates sending Javelins to the nazis in that corrupted shithole Ukraine, presided over the pervert Elinsky, he who outlawed the 7xe of the letter “Z” .. go figure, guess he forgot how to spell his own name, either that or he, Elinsky didn’t like his name… yep, 45 sent Javelins and not blankets, nothing escalatory in that… throughout this fraudulent peace process, another replay of the faux peace sought the Genocide in Gaza, all a sham, mere noise as in reality Trump has green,ignited aided, abetted gen9cide, making himself, his administration and Americans complicit despite protestations to the contrary, genocidists, well, add that to the now globally recognised and acknowledged moniker as being together their bum chums in the U.K the world’s most murderous terrorist National states with allies in Western Europe, Germany, France, Poland all eager to join that bespoke club of being genuine genocidists, irrespective the respective populaces, a majority of which who decry such illicit, wanton acts of anti human behaviour.. sadly such majority, thin at best is offset the huge numbers who champion and cheer, indeed support and welcome these despicable acts of gratuitous violence, such regard speaking volumes for the truly loathsome, repugnant detritus of humanity these compromised souls comprise.
These latest manoeuvres will like the tariffs applied do nothing to enhance a flailing, hegemon, all but defeated, lost of its power and influence both of which continue to wane at an ever alarming rate, hence the death throes we see the once Western hegemon, led the U.S finding itself confronting, 500+ years of colonial dik tat, its pogroms, manipulated contrived economic events, regime changes, political assassinations, wars all proving pointless as the global south, those nations referred to as not being of the “Western Garden” as wast opined former E.U foreign relations spokesperson Josep Jungle Borrell, a despicable individual emblematic of the decline in European Diplomacy, succeeded as he, Borrell, has been by the even more vile, former Estonian P.M Kaja Kallas, Borrell, referring to the Global South, a part of the world comprising 74% of the global populace, also being representative of more nearly 70% of global GDP as being weeds, the jungle by inference given his referring to Europe and the West including U.S, U.K, Canada, Australia and allies as the “Garden” … laughable.
Suffice to say, BRICS+ , together the global south have had a gutsful, are pushing back, rightly so, interestingly enough the West, U.S, U.K, NATO, E.U have been found out on the Ukrainian steppe in this war they agitated for, their military technology found out to be over priced, over hyped junk, Russia, China developing Super conductors, Photolithography defeating ASML, developing computer chips that are as good as those once simply imported, forced to do so, the development of such, again being forced upon them ex sanctions, commercial aircraft, Jet engines, CNC machinery, all now indiginous to China, Russia, India in other words, Trumps maniacal response has compelled these nations targeted to speed up decoupling… soon the south will trade amongst themselves, Africa projected to be together South America the fastest economic areas on the planet whilst China and India’s huge populations will secure domestic growth for centuries… hence, good luck to the warmongers, seems they don’t get the big picture, they need the global south, the global south don’t need them… thankfully BIC has underscored this mindset, watch this space, thankfully, with China, Russia and India, all nuclear powers with huge populations that if need be can translate to militaries, their position is secured, no longer the easy pushovers they use to be, the world has changed, seems that memo still hasn’t been read by those who agitate for years long gone… as they ruminate a lost by gone world, the new world rises, one that has as its core focus, respect for sovereignty, non interference in domestic affairs of other states (translation… no regime changes, assassinations, imposing dictators, war mongering to seize resources of sovereign states etc..) respect for international convention, laws, norms and institutions.. who will reestablish the sanctity of international bodies like the ICC, U.N finally ensuring the Western politicisation of said bodies comes to the end deserved… to the West and its financial elites, this is anathema, a dichotomy, greed and avarice no more, hence the hegemon threshes in its death throes… hopefully thi# latest Trump, BIC error, the latest of many, will hasten its demise.. just saying
Kia Kaha (stay strong) from New New Zealand
How to appear to be strong by shooting your self in the foot.