Docks in Deadlock

The unions have Biden over a barrel in a strike that could cost the American economy about $5 billion per day

East Coast ports fell silent yesterday as International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) workers struck after contract talks with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) collapsed.

This isn't isolated to a few ports – we're talking about 36 of them from Maine to Texas, including 14 that handle half of the country's container trade. In total, about 60% of U.S. container trade is now at a standstill.

With a slowdown this big, it’s practically guaranteed to send shockwaves through the entire economy. Just think about it.

• Manufacturers can't get raw materials, so production slows or stops.

• Retailers can't stock shelves, so sales plummet.

• Exporters can't ship goods, so foreign revenue dries up.

• Shipping companies bleed money on idle ships and containers.

JP Morgan analysts estimate this could cost the American economy around $5 billion per day. But that might be optimistic given the growing backlog.

As of Tuesday, 38 container ships were waiting outside U.S. ports, up from just three on Sunday. Each day the strike continues, this number increases, creating a compounding problem.

For perspective, a similar 10-day strike in 2002 led to six months of backlog. Even when this strike ends, it'll take time to get back to normal operations.

Now, you'd think the USMX offering a 50% wage hike, tripled pension contributions, and better healthcare would be enough to end this mess. But no. That's because the union isn't just looking for bigger paychecks this time. They want an end to port automation projects that threaten union jobs.

What better way to "prevent" automation than by becoming a major headache for your employer, right?

Biden's Predicament

Now, the union bosses have timed this strike perfectly to coincide with the pre-holiday shipping season. It’s a smart move—it’s like they’ve taken the entire U.S. economy hostage and are demanding a ransom.

But it’s not just about the holidays; we’re also just weeks away from a major election.

The union leaders know how desperate the Democrats are for union support, and they’re taking full advantage of it.

President Biden has the power to put a stop to this strike under the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act. We saw this happen in 2002 when Republican President George W. Bush stepped in to reopen ports after an 10-day strike by dockworkers on the West Coast.

But Biden has chosen to sit this one out. This, despite Morgan Stanley economists warning yesterday that a prolonged strike could fuel inflation.

Yes, the ILA's fiery leader, Harold Daggett, endorsed Biden back in 2020, but he has criticized the president since. He even met with Donald Trump not too long ago.

The bottom line is that Biden knows if he intervenes, the Democrats might as well kiss the union vote goodbye. In an election year, that would be political suicide. The unions have him over a barrel, and they know it.

And that’s why White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is saying things like this:

Shippers have made record profits since the pandemic, and, in some cases, have seen profits grow in excess of 800%. It's only fair that workers who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open see a meaningful increase in their wages, as well.

There are so many problems with this statement that I don’t even know where to start.

First, like I said, it’s not just about getting a fair wage. It’s really about asking American ports to stay stuck in the Dark Ages while the rest of the world moves ahead.

Second, she’s cherry-picking data from 2021, pointing to global cargo carriers’ estimated $150 billion profits at the peak of the shipping frenzy. It’s like judging someone’s finances based on their luckiest day at the casino.

Plus, that $150 billion is, again, global. How much of that actually came from U.S. operations? And what about the tough years before 2021 when a lot of shipping companies were barely getting by?

The bottom line is that this isn't about what's best for the country or the economy. It's about pandering to union votes to secure their own power. And if it ends up reigniting inflation? Well, I guess they're just willing to roll those dice.

Preparing for the Worst

Now, as I mentioned in a recent essay, American consumers are drowning in debt, with credit card balances hitting the highest level since 1947. Delinquencies have more than doubled since 2021. Student loans, auto loans, and mortgage debt are all at or near historic highs.

This all added up to a record household debt of $17.8 trillion for Q2 2025. And it's not just high; it's breaking records every quarter. Just take a look at the next chart.

Now, throw a massive supply chain disruption into this mix. What happens when the already-stressed American consumer suddenly faces shortages and price spikes on essentials? It's not just about delayed Christmas gifts anymore; we're talking food, medicine, and basic necessities stuck on ships instead of reaching us.

Picture this: you're just an average Joe juggling mortgage payments, car loans, and credit card bills. Suddenly, prices for everything from bread to band-aids shoot up because of the port strike. What do you do? Skip a mortgage payment to buy groceries? Max out your credit cards to keep the lights on? Sell a kidney to fill your gas tank?

This is the reality millions of Americans could soon face if this drags on.

Now, I don’t necessarily think it will, especially with elections around the corner. The chaos would be too much for the Democrats to handle. But it could happen.

I, for one, would be very suspicious if the government suddenly starts trying its hardest to reassure us that “everything is fine.” Remember, these are the same people who said inflation was “transitory” and that the 2008 financial crisis was “contained.”

While I’m not suggesting panic buying, being prepared is just smart. Having a stockpile of essentials—canned goods, medicine, and yes, even toilet paper—isn’t paranoia; it’s just common sense in uncertain times.

Regards,

Lau Vegys