Can $5.52 Per Person Really Feed Your Thanksgiving Gathering Tonight?

Chart of the Week #78

So here’s some good news to start your Thanksgiving: according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), your Thanksgiving dinner just got cheaper. In fact, they claim you can feed 10 people for just $55.18—down 5% from last year and the lowest since 2021.

Now, before we all break out the champagne and toast to our newfound prosperity, let’s talk about what’s actually happening here. Take a look at this week’s chart below, showing the AFBF’s official Thanksgiving dinner cost estimates over recent years.

As you can see, prices have indeed come down from their 2022 peak of around $64. The turkey itself—typically the priciest item on the table—dropped more than 16% this year to $21.50 for a 16-pound bird.

So yes, technically speaking, Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than last year. I’ll give them that.

But remember there are 10 people involved, so that $55.18 dinner breaks down to a laughable $5.52 per person.

That, of course, assumes you’re buying the absolute bare minimum—and I do mean bare minimum. We’re talking about a single frozen turkey, one can of stuffing mix, frozen dinner rolls, and whatever other bottom-shelf basics make up their 12-item survey list.

No wine. No appetizers. No fancy sides. No dessert beyond a single pumpkin pie. Certainly no leftovers worth mentioning.

Good luck trying to pull that off at your actual Thanksgiving table tonight.

But wait—it gets better.

The AFBF wants you to focus on that 5% year-over-year decline. What they don’t want you focusing on is the fact that even at today’s “low” prices, Thanksgiving dinner still costs roughly 30% more than it did just five years ago in 2019. You can see this in the graph above.

And even compared to last year, not everything got cheaper. Fresh vegetables are up. Sweet potatoes? Up 37%. A veggie tray will cost you 61% more than last year.

Clearly, the same factors that have been driving food prices higher for years are still very much in play. (They just happened to get a break on turkeys this year because demand fell—and it fell hard enough to offset the ongoing supply problems from avian flu.)

And here’s something else…

At $55 per dinner, this survey assumes you’re shopping like it’s a competitive sport. Volunteers for this survey check prices both online and in stores, hunting for the absolute best deals without coupons or loyalty discounts. I’d bet good money they’re comparison shopping across multiple retailers to find rock-bottom prices on every single item.

Most families don’t shop that way. They go to one, maybe two stores, grab what they need, and call it a day. And when you shop like a normal person, that $55 estimate starts looking more like $80, or even $100 pretty quickly.

Now, I’m not trying to ruin anyone’s Thanksgiving here. The point isn’t that we should all be miserable because dinner costs more than it used to. The point is that we’ve collectively accepted a new normal where feeding your family costs dramatically more than it did just a few years ago, and we’re supposed to be grateful when it only gets slightly less expensive.

So yes, enjoy your Thanksgiving dinner today. Be grateful for family, friends, and whatever you’re able to put on the table. But don’t let the AFBF—or the media cheerleading their survey—gaslight you into thinking $5.52 per person is some kind of realistic baseline for what Thanksgiving actually costs in 2025.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Lau Vegys