I think at this point having a 2nd passport is top priority if you can. Next is to prep according, everyone's circumstances are different..also you need to have community(like minded) and ability to defend your home and stuff. Where are the good ole days of HR Puffenstuff. ..gone unfortunately, strength is in numbers and we are lacking, can you imagine having 500 people at a town council meeting..how bout 1500…instead lucky to get 20…you can't change elections that way.. data centers and 5g towers need to go.. .immediately, before anymore of us die from frequencies that lead to cancer,anxiety, headaches,etc,etc,etc
As the inflation continues to lower living standards you're going to get more irrational behavior from people too. That should keep you motivated to "gray man/woman" yourself more, keep your head on a swivel. This is a process not an event.
Again, I'm really impressed by your command of historical specifics as relates to the them of your essay. Very convincing. Distressing, too. But better prepared than blindsided. Thanks.
I broadly agree with the article’s core point: structurally large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs make some form of long-term monetary debasement increasingly likely.
Where I’m less certain is timing. Macro imbalances can persist far longer than most investors expect, especially when the reserve currency issuer is involved.
I also think the key question is not whether money printing returns eventually, but how markets discount it beforehand. The path will probably be much less linear than either gold bulls or deflationists expect.
Still, history suggests that heavily indebted states rarely solve debt problems through austerity alone.
Yes, timing is the hardest call. Reserve currency status does buy more time - agreed. But the way it gives way is usually a step-change, not a slow grind. Which is why I'd rather be early than wait to be sure.
Really enjoyed the post, Lau. I broadly agree with your core argument: current debt dynamics and rising interest costs make some form of long-term monetary debasement increasingly likely.
I also agree that reserve currency status does not eliminate the problem; it mainly extends the timeline. And history is certainly not kind to heavily indebted states trying to solve these situations through austerity alone.
My only hesitation is about timing and market-path dependence. These macro imbalances can persist much longer than investors expect, especially in the case of the United States. Even with structurally lower expected returns from today’s valuation levels, markets can remain elevated for quite some time.
That said, I also agree with your broader positioning logic. Rational investing is ultimately about expected return relative to risk. When expected returns become increasingly compressed while risks continue to rise, it makes sense to gradually leave the party precisely because nobody can reliably identify the exact top in advance.
So I think we are largely aligned. My point was mainly that even if the long-term destination proves correct, the path toward it will probably be far less linear and far more psychologically demanding than either the gold bulls or the deflation camp expects.
Well, that’s the way our monetary system works (see Deuteronomium 15).
One can only slow down the path into any next currency reform (which basically is a brutal expropriation of the masses for the -final- benefit of the government and bank owners) by strictly following the limiting mechanisms in banking, e.g.
a) maintaining the minimum reserve ratio stable (which for instance the Clinton admin failed to do so leading to the subprime crisis),
b) forcing banks to write down bad debt (instead of outsourcing them into ‚bad‘ banks and just praying for hope..)
But since humans are mostly greedy (politicians, investment + central bankers and a few more frontrunning), we are on an even accelerated path now.
In case anyone still reading this text after 2032 or even after 2050, I would also recommend to eliminate interests on interests (Islamic banking goes into that direction) bc. this accumulates too much + too fast the wealth of a nation in the hands of the (owners) of financial intermediaries.
What are the rules if you take wanna take gold/silver out of country to say barbados..can I have it mailed out of county..or drive into Mexico, is it legal
There is a way out with "monetary reform" and public banking. My published research via The Claremont Colleges, including the "top ten" historical leading Americans for monetary reform and public banking:
‘Financial’/‘monetary’/‘derivative’ house-of-cards paper-collapse? Superior mechanics READY NOW proven by Ben Franklin, backed by 86% of Economics professors: monetary reform + public banking
10 year timeline is optimistic …
Wouldn't argue with that.
Money printer +tyranny
yep - two sides of the same coin.
I think at this point having a 2nd passport is top priority if you can. Next is to prep according, everyone's circumstances are different..also you need to have community(like minded) and ability to defend your home and stuff. Where are the good ole days of HR Puffenstuff. ..gone unfortunately, strength is in numbers and we are lacking, can you imagine having 500 people at a town council meeting..how bout 1500…instead lucky to get 20…you can't change elections that way.. data centers and 5g towers need to go.. .immediately, before anymore of us die from frequencies that lead to cancer,anxiety, headaches,etc,etc,etc
>>I think at this point having a 2nd passport is top priority if you can.
I'd check out Paraguay or Uruguay if you're really looking into it.
Thank you
As the inflation continues to lower living standards you're going to get more irrational behavior from people too. That should keep you motivated to "gray man/woman" yourself more, keep your head on a swivel. This is a process not an event.
True. And agreed.
Again, I'm really impressed by your command of historical specifics as relates to the them of your essay. Very convincing. Distressing, too. But better prepared than blindsided. Thanks.
Thanks Jay. Better prepared than blindsided - that's the goal, yes.
Great article and really well crafted…I just wish the punchline was better :). Cheers and thanks again Lau
Thanks Christopher - I'll work on a better one next time. 😉
I broadly agree with the article’s core point: structurally large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs make some form of long-term monetary debasement increasingly likely.
Where I’m less certain is timing. Macro imbalances can persist far longer than most investors expect, especially when the reserve currency issuer is involved.
I also think the key question is not whether money printing returns eventually, but how markets discount it beforehand. The path will probably be much less linear than either gold bulls or deflationists expect.
Still, history suggests that heavily indebted states rarely solve debt problems through austerity alone.
Yes, timing is the hardest call. Reserve currency status does buy more time - agreed. But the way it gives way is usually a step-change, not a slow grind. Which is why I'd rather be early than wait to be sure.
Really enjoyed the post, Lau. I broadly agree with your core argument: current debt dynamics and rising interest costs make some form of long-term monetary debasement increasingly likely.
I also agree that reserve currency status does not eliminate the problem; it mainly extends the timeline. And history is certainly not kind to heavily indebted states trying to solve these situations through austerity alone.
My only hesitation is about timing and market-path dependence. These macro imbalances can persist much longer than investors expect, especially in the case of the United States. Even with structurally lower expected returns from today’s valuation levels, markets can remain elevated for quite some time.
That said, I also agree with your broader positioning logic. Rational investing is ultimately about expected return relative to risk. When expected returns become increasingly compressed while risks continue to rise, it makes sense to gradually leave the party precisely because nobody can reliably identify the exact top in advance.
So I think we are largely aligned. My point was mainly that even if the long-term destination proves correct, the path toward it will probably be far less linear and far more psychologically demanding than either the gold bulls or the deflation camp expects.
Excellent piece.
Regards,
Attila
Well, that’s the way our monetary system works (see Deuteronomium 15).
One can only slow down the path into any next currency reform (which basically is a brutal expropriation of the masses for the -final- benefit of the government and bank owners) by strictly following the limiting mechanisms in banking, e.g.
a) maintaining the minimum reserve ratio stable (which for instance the Clinton admin failed to do so leading to the subprime crisis),
b) forcing banks to write down bad debt (instead of outsourcing them into ‚bad‘ banks and just praying for hope..)
But since humans are mostly greedy (politicians, investment + central bankers and a few more frontrunning), we are on an even accelerated path now.
In case anyone still reading this text after 2032 or even after 2050, I would also recommend to eliminate interests on interests (Islamic banking goes into that direction) bc. this accumulates too much + too fast the wealth of a nation in the hands of the (owners) of financial intermediaries.
But again - since humans are mostly greedy..
How can you take gold from storage in USA out of country to either Mexico, barbados , is 2nd passport needed
What are the rules if you take wanna take gold/silver out of country to say barbados..can I have it mailed out of county..or drive into Mexico, is it legal
Either option is possible keep in mind all is a risk. The least would be to ship it out imho.
Thank you, Lau :)
There is a way out with "monetary reform" and public banking. My published research via The Claremont Colleges, including the "top ten" historical leading Americans for monetary reform and public banking:
‘Financial’/‘monetary’/‘derivative’ house-of-cards paper-collapse? Superior mechanics READY NOW proven by Ben Franklin, backed by 86% of Economics professors: monetary reform + public banking
https://carlbherman.blogspot.com/2024/08/financialmonetaryderivative-house-of.html
An alternative would be to host the biggest garage sale the world has ever seen.
Yes, that is intentionally not realistic. But it might be a better choice than the others.